Wrong for Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Newsweek notes that “Democrats are likely to lose” the U.S. Senate race, in part because “Sestak has been tied to Obama from day one.”

…[T]he unpopularity of President Obama's agenda is hurting Democrats' midterm election prospects. "Pennsylvanians are disillusioned with Obama," says Beverly Cigler, a political scientist at Pennsylvania State University. "Cap-and-trade scared them, and they are convinced that health care is not a good idea and that the stimulus didn’t work."… Democrats are likely to lose at least one important contest  in November—the one to fill Arlen Specter's seat. Rep. Joe Sestak, the military veteran whom Democrats nominated to succeed Specter, is polling consistently behind Republican Pat Toomey. Internal polls from the Sestak campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released last week showed a dead heat, while Rasmussen Reports, which tends to lean Republican, shows Toomey up by 10. As Nate Silver of The New York Times explains, internal polls average a 6-point bias in favor of the side that commissioned them. So Silver stands by his projection of a 7-point victory for Toomey that he found from averaging nonpartisan polls, and gives Toomey a 92 percent chance of winning. "Sestak has been tied to Obama from day one," says Cigler. "Obama was his role model and he supported Obama’s agenda."

The Washington Times notes that “Pat Toomey appears poised to lead a Republican surge in Pennsylvania in a Senate race that will test just how deeply the state's ‘blue’ roots run.”

The battle between Mr. Toomey, a former congressman, and Rep. Joe Sestak, a Democrat, is part of a larger story of this year's congressional campaigns: Democrats find they are devoting money and manpower to save Senate seats in areas that were once considered their political backyards. In Pennsylvania, Senate Democrats' campaign committee has spent more than it has on any other race, and Mr. Sestak has been aided by visits from President Obama and former President Bill Clinton… Political prognosticators say it's shifting away from Democrats. The Cook and Rothenberg political reports gave Mr. Toomey a slight edge, Rasmussen Reports moved the race to solidly Republican and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball put it in the "likely Republican" column last week. The RealClearPolitics.com average of polls gives Mr. Toomey a lead of nearly 8 percentage points.

And Toomey responded to Sestak’s latest attack ad, noting that while his opponent’s dog is Bella is “very cute,” Joe Sestak’s ad is a “last-ditch effort” to run away from his record of voting “for every bailout that has come down the pike,” and to pin the blame on others. The Patriot-News reports:

The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat has seen a lot of mud slinging -- now it has a little dog poop.  Republican Pat Toomey on Monday took aim at Democrat Joe Sestak's dog, Bella, to outline his opponent's record of voting for bailouts… With an initial disclaimer that Bella is a "very cute dog," Toomey said the ad was just another "last-ditch effort" on the part of his opponent to run away from his record of voting "for every bailout that has come down the pike," and to pin the blame on others. In a poster timechart, the Toomey camp compared its candidate's efforts to impose stricter regulations on the government mortgage arms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were at the center of the housing crisis, and Sestak's record of voting against them and for Wall Street and auto companies bailouts. "It doesn't pass the smell test," Toomey said during a press conference at the GOP headquarters in Harrisburg.