Wrong for Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, today’s Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll shows former businessman Pat Toomey with a strong lead over liberal Congressman Joe Sestak, 48-40 percent. The Morning Call’s John Micek reports:

Providing a stark reminder that something is only a "surge" if it keeps happening, Republicans Tom Corbett  and Pat Toomey have solidified their leads over Democratic rivals Dan Onorato and Joe Sestak in this morning's Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll. In the U.S. Senate race, Toomey leads Sestak 48-40 percent with 12 percent still undecided… This morning's numbers, however, are a reminder to Democrats that they have not apparently woken up in sufficient numbers. Nor does it appear that independents and undecideds are breaking their way.

CQ’s Taegan Goddard notes:

After finding the race a dead heat last week, the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll shows Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by eight points in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 40%, with 12% still undecided.

And CQ-Roll Call’s Steve Peoples reports on a Toomey campaign memo outlining their strategy to win in November.

In the internal memo, however, Lerner notes that another shift is underway -- this one benefiting his employer. Toomey leads by 4 and 5 points in two public polls released since Friday… "Sestak has no more room to grow his numbers among strong partisan Democrats, and he is failing to capture voters in the center of the electorate. "While we do not release internal polls, we have seen similar movement in Toomey's direction, including among key demographic groups such as seniors, conservative Democrats, and ticket-splitters. There is no question that this is a close race, but there is also no question that Toomey is ahead, and is well positioned to win in eight days."